Insider Reveals How Parker Messick Exceeded Expectations In 2026

Each year, before the start of every MLB season, analysts and writers post some of their boldest predictions ahead of the beginning of the new campaign. Readers, of course, keep the receipts, and all parties examine how the analyst did when everything is said and done.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield had one bold prediction for every MLB team before the 2026 campaign, and this week, he wrote about them. When it was time to come up with one for the Cleveland Guardians, he had stated that Parker Messick would lead the team with 15 wins and become the first lefty Cleveland starter to make the All-Star team, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting.

While it didn’t perfectly match what happened in reality, it was very, very close.

“Well, Messick won only 12 games while Gavin Williams led the team with 14, but Messick was even better than expected: 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA, 193 strikeouts and 6.3 WAR — arguably the best rookie season by a pitcher in Guardians history. He was an All-Star and should finish second behind McGonigle in rookie voting,” Schoenfield wrote.

Because the Guardians’ offense didn’t offer enough run support, Schoenfield fell a little short of the predicted win total for Messick, but he correctly identified him as one of the season’s breakout starters in the American League, and that alone deserves credit.

Not even the Guardians were fully sold on Messick after posting a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 innings in 2025, as he had to earn a rotation spot in spring training. Time, however, put everything where it belonged.

Messick started to string together gem after gem, and it quickly became evident that he could dominate even without top velocity. He finished the season as the most valuable starter on the Guardians’ roster, and while his postseason wasn’t as good as Gavin Williams’, he mostly kept Cleveland in games with a few notable exceptions.

Messick has an outside chance of winning both the AL Rookie of the Year Award and the AL Cy Young Award. Only Fernando Valenzuela has done that.

Schoenfield had some puzzling predictions, but that’s bound to happen because no one can fully predict the future. He was mostly solid with his picks, and the Messick one was particularly impressive.