Foster Griffin’s time in Cleveland may have been short, but it looks like it will lead to a big payday. The left-hander came to the Guardians at the trade deadline and helped them win a third straight division title and reach the ALCS. Now he is one of the most interesting pitchers on the open market. Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly released his contract and landing spot predictions for the top 25 free agents this week, and he has Griffin heading to the San Diego Padres. Looking at Griffin’s struggles after the trade, Kelly wrote that “he may have been a bit unlucky on a small sample size.”
“To be fair to Griffin, he had a 3.54 FIP with the Guardians, so he may have been a bit unlucky on a small sample size. Griffin’s full body of work in 2026 is still pretty impressive, even with the second-half regression factored in. The San Diego Padres basically need to redo their entire rotation, considering that the aforementioned Mize, Michael King, Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler are all free agents,” Kelly wrote.
Kelly predicted a three-year, $56 million deal for Griffin that includes a player opt-out after the 2028 season. It would still be a massive raise for a pitcher who spent the previous three seasons in Japan.
The case for Griffin starts with his full season. He went 15-6 with a 3.60 ERA, a 3.96 FIP and 158 strikeouts over 172 2/3 innings, which was good for 2.6 WAR. He opened the year with Washington and went 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA before the break, earning an All-Star selection. Kelly pointed out that Griffin’s 4.10 FIP with the Nationals suggested some regression was coming.
That regression showed up in Cleveland. Griffin posted a 5.19 ERA in nine starts for the Guardians, but his 3.54 FIP was actually better than his number in Washington. Kelly believes the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle, and that Griffin’s overall body of work is still strong enough to earn him a solid contract.
San Diego makes a lot of sense. The Padres have major holes in their rotation, with Casey Mize, Michael King, Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler all hitting free agency. Kelly noted that Griffin cannot be the only pitcher San Diego adds this winter, but he would be a good place to start.
For the Guardians, the prediction lines up with what most expected. Cleveland had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball this season and rarely hands out contracts in that range. Losing Griffin leaves a hole behind Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Tanner Bibee, but the club has internal options in Joey Cantillo, Daniel Espino and Austin Peterson, along with the flexibility to look for a cheaper veteran.
There is also a ticking clock. Owners are expected to lock out the players when the collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1, and the league’s push for a salary cap could make that lockout a long one. Players like Griffin may want to sign during the few weeks of free agency before that deadline.
Griffin’s stint in Cleveland was brief, but he gave the Guardians a key arm during their stretch run and started Game 1 of the ALCS. If Kelly is right, his next stop will be Southern California.
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