After dropping Game 2 of the AL Division Series on Monday against the Chicago White Sox, the Cleveland Guardians are in a 0-2 hole, facing elimination with their next loss. They won the AL Central and reached the ALDS with home-field advantage, but so far, it hasn’t given them an edge.
To advance to the AL Championship Series, the Guardians will need to win three straight games, and two of them will have to be in Chicago. It’s certainly a tall task, but history says it’s not unprecedented.
Researcher Luke Potoski said that just three teams have come back from falling 0-2 at home in the history of the Division Series.
“For the hopeful Guardians fans wondering, there are three instances in which a team has lost the first two games of a divisional series at home but still went on to win the series: • 2001 ALDS (NYY over OAK) • 2012 NLDS (SF over CIN) • 2015 ALDS (TOR over TEX),” he said.
For the hopeful #GuardsBall fans wondering, there are three instances in which a team has lost the first two games of a divisional series at home but still went on to win the series:
• 2001 ALDS (NYY over OAK)
• 2012 NLDS (SF over CIN)
• 2015 ALDS (TOR over TEX)#StandGuard pic.twitter.com/n5z0BTbDao— Luke Potosky (@LukePotosky) October 6, 2026
Basically, the Guardians will be trying to achieve something that no MLB team has done in 11 years, since the Blue Jays beat the Rangers on their way to the AL Championship Series, and then ended up losing to the Kansas City Royals.
That year, the Rangers took the first two at Rogers Centre, only for the Blue Jays to rally and win two at Globe Life Park and one at home to advance. The Guardians will try to follow that blueprint, but they have a sneaky solid White Sox team that refuses to go down easily.
In reality, Cleveland will be going against the weight of history. According to MLB researcher Sarah Langs, in all best-of-five postseason series, teams with a 2-0 lead have gone on to win the series 83 of 93 times. That’s 89%, for those keeping score at home.
In all best-of-five postseason series, teams with a 2-0 lead have gone on to win the series 83 of 93 times (89%)
Teams that have won the first two games on the road in Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format have gone on to win the series 17 of 19 times (also 89%) https://t.co/cVEIgbwhK8
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 6, 2026
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt hasn’t announced the starter for Game 3 in Chicago on Wednesday. He has several options: using Joey Cantillo with an opener ahead of him, or going with Tanner Bibee or Foster Griffin.
At this point, however, it will be an all-hands-on-deck situation: with the notable exceptions of Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, everyone will be available to pitch for Cleveland.
NEXT: Guardians Drop Second Straight And Will Face Elimination On Wednesday
