It’s never too early to take a look at postseason odds. That’s the fun part of it, actually: watching them change with each passing month and enjoying the dynamics of every team as time goes by.
If you have followed this exercise and other similar ones since the end of last season and all through the offseason, spring training, and the beginning of the 2026 campaign, you know that the Cleveland Guardians don’t get the respect they deserve.
People continue to underrate them and their excellent use of resources. It’s almost like winning two consecutive AL Central crowns and making the Championship Series in 2024 doesn’t count.
The latest system to disrespect Cleveland is FanGraphs. According to Codify, they have the 18th-best odds to make the playoffs among the 30 teams in competition.
“2026 Playoff Chances (FanGraphs): 33% Guardians,” Codify wrote.
2026 Playoff Chances (FanGraphs):
99% Dodgers
95% Braves, Yankees
78% Mariners
75% Cubs
68% Tigers
54% Rangers
50% Pirates
47% Orioles, Rays
45% Padres
43% Blue Jays, Diamondbacks
40% Athletics
38% Phillies
36% Reds
35% Brewers
33% Guardians
31% Mets
28% Red Sox
24% Twins,…— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 30, 2026
FanGraphs and its system believe that there’s a 67 percent chance that Cleveland misses the postseason, with six spots to fill in the American League, and even though they are currently first in their division with a 16-16 record.
To be very clear, in this case, it’s not personal or malicious. It’s just how the system and the numbers work. However, it feels unfair given the fact that Cleveland has been, by far, the most successful team in its division in the last ten years, at least.
They have gone to seven of the last ten postseasons, and they have come close to the title on a couple of occasions. If that’s not sustained success, we don’t know what is.
Teams such as the Rangers, Pirates, Rays, Athletics, and Reds all have better odds than the Guardians, which doesn’t feel entirely right. As always, they will have to prove they have what it takes to silence the critics on the field, where it matters.
The Guardians are flawed, yes, like the vast majority of squads around the league. That doesn’t mean they are bad or that they don’t have potential to be even better. Time will tell if they make it to October: they have the pieces and the prospects.
NEXT: Insider Says Guardians Infielder Has 'Earned' His Spot
