Stat Shows How Improbable Brayan Rocchio’s Walk-Off Hit Was

Cleveland Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio came to the plate with the game on the line on Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox. He found runners on second and third and two outs on the scoreboard with his team down one run.

After falling behind 0-2 on the count, Rocchio swung at a high sinker that was clocked at 100.9 mph. He hit a fly ball that many would have thought looked routine, but left fielder Sam Antonacci wasn’t properly positioned and didn’t take the best route. The ball touched the grass, and the Guardians earned a walk-off 7-6 win.

The hit, according to Statcast’s xBA (expected batting average), was highly improbable. The metric estimates how likely a batted ball is to become a hit based on quality of contact and the runner’s speed.

To make the calculation, Statcast uses the exit velocity and launch angle of every ball put in play. Every ball is assigned a hit probability based on historical data from past MLB campaigns.

Well, Rocchio’s long fly had a .060 expected batting average. That’s right: .060. The Guardians proudly posted the graph with the information on X.

lol pic.twitter.com/bgfOELjtjd

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) September 16, 2026

Grant Taylor didn’t make a bad pitch. It was up in the zone, theoretically out of reach, at almost 101 mph. But Rocchio, who was born for these moments and notched his fourth walk-off hit of the year, put on an impressive swing.

The ball left his bat at 88.8 mph, far from the established ‘hard-hit ball’ threshold of 95 mph. And the 30-degree launch angle wasn’t ideal, either. However, everything was set up for Rocchio to have another signature September moment. We are all living in ‘Rocctember’, and some people don’t even know it yet.

Antonacci himself admitted that the route he took to the ball wasn’t ideal. That, of course, contributed to the walk-off hit.

Sam Antonacci, on his route to Brayan Rocchio's fly ball in the 9th: "Pretty dogsh– to be honest."

— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) September 16, 2026

With the victory, the Guardians cut the White Sox’s lead in the AL Central to just half a game, and the two squads will face off again on Wednesday’s matinee in the series finale. Whoever wins will wake up on Thursday as the division leader, and that’s certainly not insignificant.