The Cleveland Guardians needed everything to go right last season as they made a historic comeback to win the AL Central. There was no margin for error after they fell behind by as many as 15.5 games in the standings.
So, the Guardians had to win every game they had a chance to in order to stay in the race. As it turned out, they were able to do so.
Insider Paul Hoynes recently pointed out an interesting fact about the Guardians from last season, identifying their excellent record in close games.
“Fun fact: Last year the Guardians went 50-33 in games decided by two or fewer runs,” Hoynes wrote.
That mark is even more impressive when you consider the upheaval in the Guardians’ bullpen after Emmanuel Clase was lost entering August due to an MLB gambling investigation. Cade Smith was able to take over as the closer and protect those leads in the late innings.
It allowed the Guardians to win the division despite still trailing the Detroit Tigers by 11 games in September. It was the largest deficit ever overcome to win an MLB division.
Cleveland may need the same sort of performance to get back to the playoffs this season. After failing to make any significant moves to upgrade their low-ranked offense, some projections for the Guardians are bleak.
For example, if Cleveland were only .500 in those close games last season (42-41 rather than 50-33), it would have finished with a losing record and far out of the playoffs. So, an even better record may be necessary this year.
They will try to do that by improving from within, namely by relying on some heralded prospects. However, there may not be as many in the Opening Day lineup as first thought.
In addition, All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez is expected to take a step back in 2026, according to projections from FanGraphs. Though he will be a very productive player, he could fall short of another 30-30 season that the Guardians have come to rely on.
Based on their performance in two seasons under manager Stephen Vogt, the Guardians should never be counted out, but they could have a more difficult road in 2026.
NEXT: MLB Projects Guardians' Opening Day Lineup, Rotation








