From 2021 to 2023, Trevor Stephan was one of the best and most dominant setup men in the American League. He posted a 3.73 ERA over the course of those three seasons, covering 195.2 innings and striking out 232 hitters.
In 2022, Stephan’s finest campaign, his fastball averaged 96.5 mph, and he had a 2.69 ERA. Then, after a solid, if unspectacular 2023, his elbow started to bark.
He was diagnosed with a bone bruise in his elbow in February 2024, then ligament damage in March. Boom: Tommy John surgery.
After having his entire 2024 campaign wiped out due to the procedure, Stephan returned to pitching last year, but he couldn’t crack the major league roster following a 9.51 ERA in 23.2 minor league innings.
This spring, the results have been a bit better as he has a 3.38 ERA, but he has lost so much velocity that it’s affecting his entire 2026 outlook. With Peyton Pallette pitching like a man on a mission, Stephan is facing an uphill battle to make the roster.
After watching Stephan pitch and struggle on Tuesday, Paul Hoynes expressed concern about his velocity in the latest episode of the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast.
“He was throwing about 91 miles an hour,” Hoynes said. “He’s still in search of that velocity.”
At his best, Stephan averaged 96.5 mph in 2022. He was at 94.9 mph in 2023, when many believe he started showing symptoms of arm trouble. To be completely honest, 91 mph just won’t cut it for a pitcher of his profile.
His control wasn’t impeccable even when he was throwing 96, 97 mph, but now that he has lost several ticks on his fastball, he will likely be forced to nibble around the zone more, completely altering his pitching style.
There is a chance he gets back some velocity as we go deeper into the year. Perhaps the summer months and the hot weather will warm up his arm. But it’s unlikely he regains that elite fastball he used to have. And without it, there is no room for error: any mistake near the heart of the zone will be punished if the pitcher doesn’t have pinpoint command, and Stephen, well, doesn’t.
Unless something drastically changes in the upcoming days, Stephan likely won’t be an option to break camp with the Guardians.
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