The Cleveland Guardians have built a reputation for exceeding expectations, but that didn’t stop them from receiving a surprisingly low projection in a recent set of MLB power rankings.
In a recent article by Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report ranking all six MLB divisions ahead of the 2026 season, the Guardians were projected to finish near the bottom of the AL Central despite winning the division last year.
According to the projection, Cleveland is expected to finish with a 76-86 record, placing them fourth in the division.
The projected standings listed were:
Detroit Tigers: 86-76
Kansas City Royals: 81-81
Minnesota Twins: 79-83
Cleveland Guardians: 76-86
Chicago White Sox: 69-93
Rymer acknowledged that Cleveland won the division last season but suggested their success may not fully carry over into 2026.
“The Guardians are the reigning division champs, but they were statistically the luckiest team in MLB last year,” Rymer wrote.
The article also noted that Cleveland’s quiet offseason was viewed as a disappointment, which may be part of the reason analysts expect the team to take a step backward this year.
However, the Guardians have consistently shown they can outperform projections. Cleveland has relied heavily on strong pitching development and a disciplined organizational approach that has kept them competitive even without major offseason spending.
That formula helped the team capture the AL Central last season, and it could once again play a key role in 2026.
While projections often rely on statistical models and offseason roster moves, the Guardians have made a habit of proving those predictions wrong. If Cleveland’s pitching remains strong and the offense takes a step forward, the team could once again find itself near the top of the division by the end of the season.
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