Right-hander Gavin Williams was one of the best pitchers in the Cleveland Guardians’ rotation last year. He was, without question, the most dependable one, tossing 167.2 frames and putting up a strong 3.06 ERA, even if his 4.39 FIP reveals he was more than a tad lucky.
The job description for a starter reads ‘prevent runs from scoring if at all possible,’ and he did. However, those who have seen him pitch and grow into a well-above-average MLB starter know that he can be even better.
The potential is there for him to unlock another level: a fastball that averaged 96.5 mph, which ranked him in the 84th percentile in sheer velocity, and a pair of elite breaking balls in his curveball and his sweeper make up his arsenal, in addition to a cutter and a sinker.
If the Guardians find a way to optimize his fastball shape, he could take off and start posting sub-3.00 ERA seasons in his sleep. Despite elite velocity, the pitch doesn’t move a lot and was actually battered to the tune of a .383 xwOBA last year.
For reference, his curveball and sweeper were both under .250.
Additionally, there were also some control issues last year that, if they persist, could make or break his 2026 campaign. You might be shocked to learn that Williams actually led MLB in walks with 83, and had five more than the second-ranked Jose Soriano.
His 4.46 walks per nine innings were also the highest among qualified starters.
Two things can happen: one, Williams manages to trust his fastball or develop more movement, confidently attacks the zone, and takes off; or two, the walks catch up to him, and his 2026 ERA resembles his elevated 2025 FIP.
It all appears to start and end with the fastball, so it’s certainly worth paying attention to how the pitch behaves this year. Williams is off to a nice start in the Cactus League, actually lowering his ERA to 3.38 on Friday after allowing just one earned run in 3.2 frames, striking out five. The best thing of all is that he didn’t walk anyone.
Analysts and experts are in awe of him and wonder if he can develop into a true, unquestioned ace. His coaches see a high ceiling, and it’s hard not to. The short answer is yes: he can enter another tier, which would be stardom.
He will need to make some adjustments, though.
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