The final month of the 2026 MLB regular season is here, and while some of the division races are virtually settled, there are still lots of things to play for. The Cleveland Guardians, for example, hold a one-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, but are also just three games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, with a three-game series left to play against them.
Will the Guardians catch the Sox at the top of the division? Doing so would result in their third straight division crown. While it’s an entirely plausible scenario, ESPN experts don’t have much faith in Cleveland taking over the AL Central.
“Our voters mostly went chalk with the division winners. Why do you think all six will hold on to their current leads? Because the most hotly contested division races come in an AL defined by its glut of average teams. The Guardians would likely require a sweep in Chicago next week, a low-probability bet given their inability to score runs in bunches,” ESPN’s Paul Hembekides wrote.
That three-game set at Progressive Field from September 14-16 has the potential to decide the outcome of the division, but it’s also important for Cleveland to reach that date while still being within striking distance of the White Sox. If the day comes and they are four or five games out of first place, the series probably won’t make much of a difference.
Cleveland is a solid team, but it’s also frustrating. They won three out of four weekend games against Detroit, only to fall against the Baltimore Orioles, who are below .500 but also vying for a postseason spot, in Monday’s opener.
Inconsistency is the best word to describe these Guardians. ESPN experts are spot-on when they say that they have a hard time scoring runs in bunches. While the offense has definitely improved with the arrival of Jo Adell, Nathaniel Lowe, and Angel Genao after the trade deadline, it’s still not consistent enough.
That doesn’t mean that the Guardians can’t fight for the division title, though. One of baseball’s most attractive traits is that it is highly unpredictable, and the Guardians do have a lot of talent in all units and areas.
While the most likely outcome remains that Chicago wins the AL Central, nothing is set in stone at the moment. As long as there’s a mathematical chance, the Guardians will keep trying.
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