Cade Smith has been the most reliable arm in the Cleveland bullpen all season, and according to MLB.com’s analysis of his 2026 campaign, there is one specific pitch behind nearly everything he has accomplished.
Jared Greenspan broke down exactly what makes Smith’s splitter so devastating, and the numbers paint the picture of a pitch that has become one of the most unhittable offerings in the entire sport.
“The league is hitting .148 with a 48.5% whiff rate against Smith’s splitter. The expected batting average, which takes into account the quality of contact allowed, is just .113. That’s the second-lowest xBA against any splitter this season, among the 35 pitchers to throw at least 100 splitters. The splitter is a large reason why Smith, who owns a 2.48 ERA with an MLB-best 23 saves and a 99th-percentile strikeout rate (38.0%), is plenty deserving of a trip to Philadelphia next month for the All-Star Game,” Greenspan wrote.
A .113 expected batting average against any single pitch is an extraordinary number. It means that even when hitters manage to make contact against Smith’s splitter, the quality of that contact is so poor that the expected outcome barely registers as a threat. Combined with a 48.5 percent whiff rate, the pitch is functioning as close to unhittable as anything in the major leagues this season, and ranking second-lowest among 35 qualified splitter throwers places Smith in rarefied company.
Smith owns a 2.48 ERA with 49 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP across 32.2 innings in 31 appearances in 2026. His MLB-best 23 saves lead all relievers in baseball, and his strikeout rate sitting in the 99th percentile league-wide places him among the most overpowering arms in the sport regardless of role. Over his last seven days he has posted a 0.00 ERA with three strikeouts and two saves across 2.1 innings, continuing a stretch of dominance that has made him automatic in the ninth inning.
With the AL Central race tightening by the day and Cleveland’s offense leaning more heavily than ever on its pitching to keep games close, Smith’s splitter has become one of the most important weapons on the entire roster. An All-Star selection would be a fitting reward for a pitch that has made him this unhittable.
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