FanGraphs is one of the most important research resources in the baseball industry.
Data-driven articles, analysis, and projection systems continually feed the field with incredibly useful and entertaining content.
Their 2025 Playoff Odds were released this week.
It’s safe to say they were not kind to the Cleveland Guardians.
These odds are mostly fed from the Steamer and ZiPS projections, coupled with other sources of data.
In other words: it’s not personal or premeditated.
It’s just shocking to see the reigning AL Central champs projected for just 77 wins in 2025, and a fourth-place finish in the division.
They were also given just a nineteen percent chance to return to the postseason.
They are also projected to finish with a -36 run differential.
The Guardians made the AL Championship Series just a few months ago.
That means they finished among the four best teams in the league last year.
So why is the system so down on their chances?
“In a word, the offense. The Guardians’ offense was middling last year, with component statistics worse than that. They traded one of their best hitters, Josh Naylor, away this winter. They also traded Andrés Giménez, one of their better players,” Ben Clemens of FanGraphs wrote.
Yes, the Guardians lost Naylor, but they added Carlos Santana, whose 114 wRC+ last year was awfully close to Naylor’s 118 mark.
Kyle Manzardo, who seemingly broke out after being recalled from the minors in the second half, will get more at-bats, and in all fairness, anyone they put at second base will probably provide more offense than Giménez.
These things are often missed by projection systems, so Guardians fans should trust their team and their decision-making.
They have earned that trust, winning postseason series in two of the last three years.
With the league’s best bullpen, a solid group of starters, Jose Ramirez, and multiple prospects ready to contribute or on the verge of breaking out, the Guardians should be able to outplay these projections.
They might or might not win the Central this year, but they are certainly not the fourth-best team in the division.
NEXT: Guardians Prospect Works On His Defense Ahead Of Spring Training Position Battle
