Stat Shows An Encouraging Trend For Gavin Williams’ Game 3 Start

The third game of the American League Championship Series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays had to be moved from 6 pm ET to 1 pm ET due to inclement weather forecast for the evening. It might have been bad news for some fans who planned on going to a night game, but it could be a blessing in disguise for starting pitcher Gavin Williams.

Splits give us another angle on certain things. It’s always worth looking at whether a pitcher is equally good against lefties or righties, or if he turned things on in the second half after a lousy performance before the break.

In Williams’ case, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that he was a much better hurler in day games. It may mean something, or it could be anything. It’s certainly a fun fact that will inject even more optimism into an already excited Guardians fan base.

“The stats on Gavin Williams. Do you know day vs. night Gavin Williams? At night, Gavin Williams is 15-20 with a 4.38 ERA. In the daytime, Gavin Williams is 17-8 with a 2.68 ERA. That is almost two runs less per game in day vs. night,” Carman said.

➡️ @KenCarman reveals Gavin Williams' massive day/night splits ahead of ALCS Game 3.

Could the earlier start time benefit the #Guardians? 👀 pic.twitter.com/SLqh6Lvblj

— 92.3 The Fan (@923TheFan) October 15, 2026

Maybe the ‘Big Rig’ feeds on the sun, or maybe he has an undiagnosed vision problem. We don’t know. However, the numbers are there, and the sample is rather significant: Williams is much better in day games, and the third matchup of the best-of-seven series has been moved to 1:00 pm ET. That can’t be bad news for Cleveland.

The series is tied at one victory for each side after the Guardians stole home-field advantage with their Game 1 win on Monday, and the Rays took advantage of a lousy fourth inning from Cleveland and were able to knot things on Tuesday.

The AL Championship Series is now, effectively, a best-of-five affair with the next three contests set to be played at Progressive Field. Winning at least two would put the Guardians in a nice spot heading into Tampa to wrap up the series.

Of course, it’s easier said than done, but Cleveland will try to take advantage of having their ace on the mound on Thursday to take control of the series.