Gavin Williams entered 2026 as a talented young starter with control problems. He leaves it as the ace of the Cleveland Guardians’ staff and one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the American League. The 27-year-old led the AL in strikeouts, made a massive leap in his command and was the best pitcher in baseball during October.
The question now is what comes next. Here is a look at what Williams did in 2026, and what a realistic step forward could look like next season.
The 2026 Breakout
Williams went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA over 32 starts, throwing a career-high 184 1/3 innings. His 248 strikeouts led the American League, and he averaged 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He finished just two strikeouts shy of joining Shane Bieber, Corey Kluber, Sam McDowell, Luis Tiant, Herb Score and Bob Feller as the only pitchers in franchise history with 250 in a season.
The biggest change was his control. In 2025, Williams led the majors with 83 walks. This year, he cut his walk rate from 4.5 per nine innings to 3.0 while striking out far more hitters. His strikeout-to-walk ratio nearly doubled, from 2.08 to 4.07. That is the kind of improvement that separates good pitchers from great ones.
He was even better in the postseason. Williams led all pitchers with 33 strikeouts in October, and his 44 strikeouts through his first five career playoff starts trail only Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson.
Why He Can Be Even Better
Williams’ ERA does not tell the whole story. His 3.47 FIP was well below his 3.76 ERA, which suggests some bad luck. He also allowed just seven hits per nine innings, keeping his WHIP at a strong 1.11.
The one area holding him back was the long ball. Williams gave up 28 home runs this season, or 1.4 per nine innings. Several of his rough outings came down to one or two mistakes that left the park. If he can trim that number even slightly, his ERA should drop quickly.
The Projection
If Williams keeps his walk rate near where it finished in 2026 and gives up a few fewer homers, a reasonable 2027 projection looks something like this: 32 starts, about 195 innings, a 3.20 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and around 250 strikeouts. That would make him the seventh pitcher in franchise history to reach the 250 mark. It would also put him squarely in the AL Cy Young conversation.
The ceiling is even higher. Williams has the kind of stuff that can produce an ERA under 3.00 if everything clicks. At his best, he showed he can dominate any lineup, and he did it on the biggest stage this fall.
What It Means For Cleveland
Williams is entering his first year of arbitration and remains under team control through 2029. Pairing him with Parker Messick, who finished third in the AL Cy Young voting as a rookie, gives the Guardians a frontline duo few teams can match. Chris Antonetti said this week that Cleveland wants to add another starter, but Williams is the anchor the rest of the rotation is built around.
He took a huge step forward in 2026. If he takes one more in 2027, he could be the best pitcher in the American League.
NEXT: Chris Antonetti Reveals Key Position Guardians Are Looking To Add
