The Cleveland Guardians have spent most of this season proving people wrong, and it looks like they will have to do it again in the American League Championship Series. Cleveland is coming off one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history, rallying from a two game deficit to beat the White Sox in the American League Division Series. That run has the Guardians just four wins away from their first World Series appearance since 2016. Standing in their way is a Tampa Bay Rays team that swept the Yankees and will host Game 1 on Monday night at Tropicana Field. When the sportsbooks released their series prices on Sunday, the numbers did not exactly favor Cleveland. As WKYC’s Nick Camino noted, “Las Vegas oddsmakers open the #Guardians as an underdog in the ALCS.”
“As expected, Las Vegas oddsmakers open the #Guardians as an underdog in the ALCS vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Series Price: CLE +150 TB -170,” Camino wrote.
As expected, Las Vegas oddsmakers open the #Guardians as an underdog in the ALCS vs. the Tampa Bay Rays.
Series Price:
CLE +150
TB -170(Odds via @CircaSports)
(H/T @golfodds)— Nick Camino (@NickCaminoWKYC) October 11, 2026
Camino said the line was expected, and it is not hard to see why. The Rays won the American League East, finishing 4 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees, and then dispatched New York in three straight games in the division series. It was the first sweep in a best of five series or longer in franchise history and Tampa Bay’s first postseason series win since 2020. The Rays also own home field advantage in this series, meaning Games 1 and 2 will be played in Tampa Bay before the series shifts to Progressive Field for the middle three games.
Tampa Bay won that series in a way that should sound familiar to Guardians fans. The Rays ranked just 22nd in the majors in home runs during the regular season, but they outhomered the power-packed Yankees in the series and leaned on aggressive baserunning and sharp defense.
Still, Cleveland has plenty of reasons to feel good about its chances. The Guardians’ pitching staff just set a major league postseason record with 21 strikeouts in a nine inning game in Game 5, breaking the record of nineteen it set two games earlier. Gavin Williams struck out twelve in the clincher and posted a 1.54 ERA in the series, while Cade Smith and the bullpen have been lights out. On offense, José Ramírez has caught fire, going 5-12 with two homers and seven RBIs over the final three games against Chicago.
Being an underdog is nothing new for this group. The Guardians were written off when they sat at 70-70 and three games out in early September, and they were written off again after dropping the first two games of the division series at home. Both times, they came back. Game 1 of the best of seven ALCS is set for Monday at 8 p.m. at Tropicana Field, and the Guardians will get their first chance to make the oddsmakers look wrong.
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