When he broke into the scene as a rookie in 2023, Cleveland Guardians starter Tanner Bibee struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings, posting a 2.98 ERA in the process. He looked like a future star and a rotation stalwart for years to come.
The following campaign, 2024, brought even more strikeouts, 187 in 173.2 frames, and a solid 3.47 ERA. That was the year in which he earned a five-year, $48 million extension.
Then, in 2025, he took a step backwards: his strikeout rate eroded a bit (162 in 182.1 innings), and his ERA rose to 4.24. The Guardians were probably worried, but it could have easily been a fluke.
The 2026 season, however, brought even more concern with it. Bibee only fanned 148 batters in 188 frames, and his ERA increased to 4.36. He also allowed a career-high 29 home runs, and wasn’t trusted in the postseason after collapsing in September.
Guardians insider Paul Hoynes explained what Bibee needs to do in 2027 to bounce back in the eyes of fans and the organization.
“He’s got to establish swing and miss more,” Hoynes said. “He only struck out 148 guys last year in 188 innings. I know he’s not a big strikeout guy, and I know he’s wrestled with this from year to year — to go for the strikeout or go for early contact or just get outs. But it would be nice to see him at least be able to have that swing and miss in his back pocket. And another thing is he’s got to keep the ball in the ballpark.”
Of course, this is much easier said than done, but Bibee needs to get more swings and misses if he wants to even think of a rebound. Ever since that debut season in 2023, his strikeout rates and ERA finishes have been trending in the wrong direction.
Bibee’s four-seam fastball is way too hittable, which is probably why the cutter overtook it as his most frequently used pitch. The problem is that batters slugged .468 off that one as well, with 11 home runs in 2026. Generally speaking, Bibee’s hard stuff is not as effective as it used to be, or as it should be.
Whether he tries a more extreme, breaking ball-heavy approach or tries to optimize his fastball or cutter by altering their shape, Bibee needs to find a way to get more whiffs. He is a young, talented, and smart pitcher who certainly knows there’s a problem and will work hard to fix it.
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