Guardians’ Comeback Odds Are Better Than You’d Think

Two days ago, the Cleveland Guardians looked like a team on its last legs. They had dropped the first two games of the American League Division Series at home, the offense had scored just three runs, and the White Sox were riding a perfect postseason record. Then came Wednesday’s 9-3 win at Rate Field, a performance that put Cleveland right back in the conversation. The Guardians still trail the series two games to one, and they still need two more wins to advance. But according to MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins, history suggests their chances are a lot better now than most fans might assume.

Stebbins found that best of five teams who dropped the first two games before winning Game 3 “have won again to force a Game 5 in 18 of 39 instances.”

“In all best-of-five postseason series entering 2026, teams to lose the first two games before winning Game 3 to avoid elimination have won again to force a Game 5 in 18 of 39 instances (46%). They have come all the way back to win the series 10 of 39 times (26%),” Stebbins wrote.

That works out to 46 percent, which means a decisive Game 5 is close to a coin flip from here. Stebbins also noted that ten of those 39 teams went on to complete the comeback and win the series, good for a 26 percent success rate. Compare that to where Cleveland stood before Game 3, when teams that fell behind 2-0 in a best of five series had come back only ten times in 93 tries. One win more than doubled the Guardians’ odds.

The man most responsible for that shift was José Ramírez. The Guardians do not expect their star third baseman to be fully healthy again until 2027 after the hamate surgery he underwent in June, and he has battled at the plate for months. On Wednesday, none of that seemed to matter. Ramírez went 2-4 with a double, a triple, two runs scored, two RBIs and a stolen base, and Stebbins suggested the game could go down in Cleveland history as The José Ramírez Game.

His bat looked as dangerous as it has all year. Ramírez lined out at 107.9 mph in the first inning, the second hardest ball he has hit since returning from surgery, and his fifth inning double off Noah Schultz left his bat at 106.5 mph.

Ramírez had plenty of help. Jo Adell’s three run triple in the third gave Cleveland the lead for good, Foster Griffin struck out seven over 2 2/3 innings in relief, and the pitching staff combined for nineteen strikeouts, a major league postseason record for a nine inning game.

Now the Guardians need to do it again. Game 4 is set with Parker Messick taking the ball against Chicago left hander Hagen Smith. Messick struck out six of the first nine hitters he faced in Game 1 and posted a 2.81 ERA against the White Sox during the regular season. If Cleveland wins, Gavin Williams would be lined up to start Game 5 on Saturday back at Progressive Field, where he had a 2.84 ERA this season and just struck out eleven in Game 2.

The stakes are even clearer now. Tampa Bay has already eliminated the Yankees, so the winner of this series will face the Rays in the American League Championship Series. Cleveland has never come back from a 2-0 deficit in the postseason, and the last team to pull it off did it against the Guardians in 2017. With one more win, Cleveland can turn this series into a coin flip at home.