On Wednesday, Detroit Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle received the 2026 Players’ Choice AL Outstanding Rookie Award. It’s the AL Rookie of the Year Award version, but given by his peers and not by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).
That one, the official piece of hardware, will be revealed on November 9. That’s when we will all know if Cleveland Guardians ace Parker Messick will beat McGonigle in the race for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
For now, McGonigle is universally viewed as the favorite, given his everyday contributions, 5.4 fWAR, 7.1 rWAR, 129 wRC+, 18 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and 97 runs scored, not to mention his solid .278/.376/.430 line. Messick, however, has a concrete chance of pulling off the upset, and Cleveland.com’s analyst Paul Hoynes and Joe Noga explain why.
“Messick came out of nowhere, really put together a strong, strong season, 12-9. 2.56 ERA, 186 1/3 innings, 32 starts, almost 200 strikeouts, 193 punchouts, .217 batting average against,” Hoynes said. “Those are hard numbers to ignore.”
Noga added that “the 6.3 WAR (Messick’s output, per Baseball Reference) was second among all AL pitchers, not just AL rookies. So that’s, that’s important to note there. He wasn’t just good for a rookie. He was one of the best starting pitchers in the American League.”
McGonigle was a very solid player, one of the best in the American League this year. In fact, his 7.1 rWAR led the junior circuit and tells the story of an all-around contributor. Messick, however, was the ace of a team that made it all the way to the American League Championship Series. That’s not insignificant. He also flirted with MLB history.
It’s hard to finish with a home run output in the teens and almost 100 runs as a rookie. However, it’s much harder to post a sub-2.60 ERA and flirt with 200 strikeouts as Messick did.
Let’s put it this way: McGonigle won’t finish in the top three in the AL MVP voting. He probably won’t be in the top five, either, as Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Bobby Witt Jr., Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, and Cam Schlittler are considered to be ahead. Messick, on the other hand, should be one of the three finalists for the AL Cy Young Award in his first full season in the majors.
As Hoynes says, the numbers are hard to ignore. Both are deserving candidates, but Messick should have the edge over McGonigle.
NEXT: Cleveland Voice Says The World Series Has The Wrong AL Team
