Power is, without a doubt, one of the most coveted tools by MLB teams in young prospects. Home runs are the easiest and most direct way to impact games, and this is no secret to anyone.
Power should, however, come with at least enough bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline to have an impact in games. Teams can’t employ a hitter who belts one homer per week but is unplayable for long stretches.
The Cleveland Guardians have been down this road with Bobby Bradley. He hit 16 home runs in just 74 games as a rookie in 2021, but with a 35.5 percent strikeout rate. The power was there, but the contact issues were so severe that he eventually flamed out as a major leaguer.
Analysts fear that something similar can happen with 22-year-old outfielder Nolan Schubart. The 2025 third-rounder, part of a class in which the team prioritized slugging potential, has some impressive raw power, but he strikes out a lot. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper weighed in on his strengths and weaknesses, emphasizing that the high strikeout rate could eventually affect his chances of making it in the majors.
“Schubart is hitting .249/.406/.522. He has 21 home runs and was just promoted from High-A Lake County to Double-A Akron. To bring in another prospect, Shelton at Low-A Ontario ranks second in the minors with 31 home runs. But Shelton has a 33% strikeout rate. So does Schubart. Those sorts of strikeout rates are generally disqualifying for a prospect, even those with massive power production. Therefore, history suggests that the odds of Schubart or Shelton becoming a long-term MLB player are small,” Cooper wrote.
Numerous prospects have hit for power in the high minors, but when it comes with such an extreme inability to make consistent contact, it tends to cause problems when they reach the highest level: MLB.
Pitchers in the majors are better prepared to exploit every weakness that a young, inexperienced power hitter might have. They throw harder, their breaking balls are nastier, and they have much better command.
In the specific case of Schubart, he is sporting a 198 wRC+ with two homers and a 27.5 percent strikeout rate in his first eight games in Double-A Akron. He did, however, strike out at a 33.5 percent rate in a much larger sample in High-A.
He is still young enough to think he has a chance to improve his contact rate, but it’s impossible to overlook the strikeout problems. He has to work hard, shorten his swing, and prove everyone wrong. If anything, that could be fuel for him.
NEXT: Analyst Delivers Brutal Verdict On Guardians' Playoff Chances
