The Cleveland Guardians got crushed 13-3 at the hands of the Boston Red Sox on Sunday to drop two out of three games in the series and fall to 15-12 on the young season.
While 15-12 is a fine start, it hasn’t been all great in The Land, as one advanced stat shows how the Guardians have been the “luckiest” team in MLB so far, and that their record could be a bit better than it should be.
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter shared a chart on X that shows Cleveland has been the luckiest team in baseball so far with six lucky games, which is the most in the league.
“Updated chart sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2025 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Pirates the unluckiest. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 72% of the time.”
Updated chart sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2025 for each team.#Guardians so far the luckiest and #Pirates the unluckiest. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 72% of the time#MLB #Statcast #Baseball pic.twitter.com/NpTDikFz5o
— MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator) April 27, 2025
Cleveland is 5-1 in one-run games so far despite star closer Emmanuel Clase seeing his postseason struggles bleed into this season and having a -18 run differential.
Cleveland is also 20th in the league in runs scored, so the offense isn’t getting it done overall, while the starting rotation has struggled as well.
All five starters have an ERA over 4.15 so far, so while 15-12 looks fairly nice on paper, the peripherals suggest it could be an aberration if this team doesn’t start producing better numbers on both sides of the ball.
The offense and rotation were at risk of being issues heading into the year, but those worries have come to fruition through the first month of the season.
If this luck runs out, Cleveland could be looking at some dark days coming up.
NEXT: Former Player Makes Big Season Prediction About Guardians
