The Cleveland Guardians are being given almost no shot to win it all in 2026.
According to FanGraphs projections shared by Codify Baseball, Cleveland has just a 0.2% chance to win the 2026 World Series.
That figure places them near the very bottom of Major League Baseball — ahead of only a handful of teams sitting at 0.1% or 0.0%.
“Chances of Winning 2026 World Series (FanGraphs): 27.3% Dodgers 9.5% Braves 8.3% Mariners 7.6% Mets 5.8% Yankees 5.5% Tigers 4.8% Phillies 4.3% Blue Jays 4.0% Red Sox 3.8% Cubs 3.7% Orioles 1.9% Pirates 1.8% Royals 1.7% Rangers 1.5% Brewers 1.4% Astros 1.3% Giants 1.2% Twins 1.1% Diamondbacks 1.0% Athletics 0.8% Rays 0.6% Padres 0.5% Reds 0.2% Guardians 0.1% Cardinals, Marlins, Angels 0.0% White Sox, Nationals, Rockies,” Codify wrote.
Chances of Winning 2026 World Series (FanGraphs):
27.3% Dodgers 😮
9.5% Braves
8.3% Mariners
7.6% Mets
5.8% Yankees
5.5% Tigers
4.8% Phillies
4.3% Blue Jays
4.0% Red Sox
3.8% Cubs
3.7% Orioles
1.9% Pirates
1.8% Royals
1.7% Rangers
1.5% Brewers
1.4% Astros
1.3% Giants
1.2% Twins…— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 18, 2026
To put that in perspective, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the projections at 27.3%. The Braves sit at 9.5%, followed by the Mariners at 8.3% and the Mets at 7.6%. Even several AL Central teams rank significantly higher than Cleveland.
The Guardians? Just 0.2%.
It’s a stunning number for a team that is coming off an AL Central title and made one of the biggest comebacks in MLB history last season to capture the division.
Yes, Cleveland was bounced in the Wild Card round. But completely writing them off at this level feels extreme.
FanGraphs projections are heavily driven by roster construction, expected WAR totals, and underlying statistical models. The Guardians did not make major offseason additions. Instead, they opted to rely on internal growth from young players like Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and others. They are also counting on continued elite production from José Ramírez and steady pitching development.
Projection systems tend to favor star-heavy rosters and teams that added marquee free agents. Cleveland’s approach — development over splash — doesn’t always shine in preseason models.
But we’ve seen this story before.
Time and time again, the Guardians outperform expectations. Their pitching pipeline continues to produce. Their defense remains sound. And they find ways to win close games.
A 0.2% projection essentially says Cleveland is an afterthought in the American League race.
That may serve as motivation more than anything.
There are legitimate questions, of course. Can the lineup generate more consistent power? Will the bullpen stabilize after a turbulent offseason? Can the rotation stay healthy over a full 162-game schedule?
Those questions matter. But projecting them near the bottom of baseball ignores Cleveland’s track record of maximizing talent and competing in tight division races.
The AL Central is rarely dominated by a single powerhouse. It’s often decided by development, depth, and late-season execution — areas where the Guardians have historically excelled.
It is also worth remembering that projections are not destiny.
Baseball’s unpredictability is part of what makes the sport compelling. Injuries, breakout seasons, and unexpected trades reshape the landscape every year. A 0.2% preseason chance does not account for midseason momentum or internal leaps from emerging players.
If anything, Cleveland has embraced the underdog role before.
The Guardians will not be hanging FanGraphs percentages in their clubhouse. But fans certainly noticed the number.
Now the question becomes simple:
Can Cleveland once again prove the projections wrong?
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