The Cleveland Guardians had some young players break out in 2026: Brayan Rocchio put up a career-best year with the bat; Angel Martinez, Chase DeLauter, and Travis Bazzana were all excellent hitters, and Parker Messick took a gigantic step forward on the mound.
It’s not realistic to expect all of them to maintain their level or keep improving, though. It would be a dream scenario, for sure, but it’s not likely.
Here are the top two regression candidates for the 2027 campaign:
Angel Martinez
2026 brought with it Martinez’s breakout. The young and dynamic outfielder always had the tools to be a power-speed threat and a potential everyday guy, but failed to produce ideal results in 2024 and 2025.
This year, however, Martinez hit 18 home runs and stole 11 bases, driving in 62 runs and hitting .254/.290/.465 with a 108 wRC+ in 114 games. He did a little bit of everything on the field while being capable of playing all three outfield spots.
However, Martinez has one notable weakness: his lack of patience. This is something that pitchers can, and definitely will, exploit.
Martinez’s lack of plate discipline resulted in one of the lowest walk rates in the league, at 3.1 percent. He will basically expand the zone and swing at everything, and this could result in a lot of tough counts and harmless contact.
Unless he dramatically improves his plate discipline profile, Martinez could be the Guardians’ hitter who regresses the most next season.
Parker Messick
Just to be clear, I don’t think Messick will fall off a cliff next year. It’s just that he was so good for so long this year that maintaining that level will be extremely hard, especially now that hitters are a bit more familiar with his stuff and approach.
The left-hander posted a brilliant 2.56 ERA in 186.1 innings this season. He struck out 193 batters, and he finished among the very best starters in the American League in all versions of WAR.
Next season, however, could see Messick experience some degree of regression to the mean. No, it doesn’t mean he will stop being an ace, but his final ERA could be closer to 3.00 or 3.20 than 2.50 or 2.70. That’s still OK! He will still be a frontline guy and a proud member of the Guardians’ vaunted 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Messick had a 3.07 Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, in 2026. Don’t be surprised if his final 2027 ERA looks a lot like that number. Hey, the Guardians will gladly take that, and fans will, too.
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