The Cleveland Guardians knew that they threw away a big opportunity this weekend. They missed a chance to eliminate the Tampa Bay Rays or, at least, take the series back to Florida, needing just one win to advance to the World Series.
Instead, they lost on Saturday and Sunday and are now on the brink of elimination. They went from controlling the American League Championship Series 2-1 to staring into the abyss, down 3-2. Such is life in MLB, playing against the best team in the junior circuit.
None of that means that the Guardians can’t win the series, though. It just means that the odds are stacked against them, which is, well, not insignificant.
“In any best-of-seven series tied 2-2, the Game 5 winner goes on to take the series 46 of 69 times (67%). In series with the current 2-3-2 format that have been tied 2-2, teams winning Game 5 on the road (before going home for Games 6-7) have gone on to take the series 21 of 28 times (75%),” Matheson wrote.
The numbers are cold. Stone cold. When a best-of-seven affair is tied at two wins per side, the team taking Game 5 goes on to advance roughly two-thirds of the time. Additionally, when a squad wins Game 5 and goes back home needing just a win to go through, it takes the matchup three-quarters of the time.
That’s the math right there. The Guardians are therefore not favored to win because the Rays stole back home-field advantage on Saturday and won another game at Progressive Field on Sunday to make matters worse for Cleveland.
Now, Stephen Vogt and his group of men will have to find a way to ride their bullpen to a win at Tropicana Field, where the Rays are very difficult to beat. If they somehow do that, they will try to rally behind Gavin Williams in Game 7.
The Guardians’ squad as a whole appears to be starting to feel the fatigue of a long season filled with high-stakes games. Do they have two more wins in them to stunningly beat the Rays and advance to the Fall Classic, though?
NEXT: Guardians Announce Starter For Game 6 Of ALCS
