The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the more interesting teams to watch in the American League this season, but a national analyst is putting his finger on the one thing standing between this roster and a legitimate AL Central title run.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle took a deep dive into Cleveland’s situation as part of his MLB stock watch series, and his assessment of what needs to change for the Guardians was clear.
“One thing that must change: Down seasons from everyday hitters. Their offense, so strong in secondary skills, has too many regulars just not producing enough hits. The avatar for that is contact master Steven Kwan. Kwan is still making contact, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rates have plummeted, leaving him with a .211 batting average and just two steals. But it’s not all on Kwan. Bo Naylor has an OPS+ of 7, Kyle Manzardo is hitting .202 with just two homers, and even Jose Ramirez is hitting just .212, though he does so many things well that his overall value remains strong,” Doolittle wrote.
Start with Kwan, who Doolittle correctly identifies as the most glaring example of the problem. The exit velocity and hard-hit rate numbers are the key detail in that assessment. When a contact hitter stops making hard contact, it is not just a mechanical issue that fixes itself overnight. It reflects a deeper problem with how pitchers are attacking him and how he is responding to those adjustments. Kwan’s secondary skills remain intact, which is why he is still making contact at a high rate, but contact without authority is a much less dangerous offensive weapon than what Cleveland needs from the top of their lineup.
Bo Naylor’s situation is arguably the most alarming number in that entire quote. An OPS+ of 7 means he has been 93 percent below the league average hitter this season. For a catcher who showed genuine offensive promise in his development and was expected to be a two-way contributor behind the plate, those numbers represent a significant step backward at a time when Cleveland needs production from every spot in the lineup.
Manzardo has shown signs of life recently, as highlighted in his last 21-game stretch where he hit .273 with a .319 on-base percentage. But the full season line of .202 with two home runs still reflects a player who dug himself too deep a hole in April to fully recover from statistically, even if the recent trend is encouraging.
And then there is Ramirez, who even in a down year continues to contribute in ways that do not always show up in the batting average column. His 14 stolen bases, patient approach at the plate, and ability to impact games in multiple ways keep his overall value strong even when the hits are not falling at the rate Cleveland has come to expect.
When this offense gets right, and there is every reason to believe it will, the Guardians become a genuinely dangerous team in the AL Central.
The question is whether that correction comes soon enough to matter.
NEXT: Steven Kwan's Situation Has One Analyst Very Worried
