The Cleveland Guardians have lofty goals for the 2026 campaign. The reigning AL Central champs want to retain their title and embark on a long postseason journey after that, and to do it, their rotation needs to pitch to its full potential.
Just how good is the Guardians’ rotation, though? Well, if you ask the projections, the group is mediocre at best.
“2026 Projected Starting Pitcher WAR (Rounded): 10 Guardians,” Codify posted on X. Cleveland’s rotation ranks in the ninth of 12 tiers, dangerously close to the bottom of the league.
2026 Projected Starting Pitcher WAR (Rounded):
18 Red Sox
17 Tigers
16 Phillies, Dodgers
15 Rangers, Pirates
14 Blue Jays, Reds, Mariners, Rays, Braves, Yankees
13 Royals
12 Twins, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, Marlins
11 Cubs, Angels, Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants
10 Athletics,…— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) March 8, 2026
If you want some word of advice, don’t read too much into these projections because they don’t often capture a group’s potential and often focus too much on recent performance. And while there is nothing wrong with that, it’s important to point out that the Guardians’ starters are all between 26 and 28 years old.
Why is that relevant? Well, because most of them are in a perfect position to take a step forward in 2026.
Gavin Williams, who posted a 3.06 ERA but a 4.39 FIP, should experience a correction in both stats. His ERA will probably regress a little, but his FIP stands to improve if he can throw strikes more consistently. The FanGraphs’ version of WAR considers FIP for its formula.
Tanner Bibee had a down season with a 4.24 ERA last year, but remains a solid young starter who was brilliant in September (1.30 ERA) and has a career 3.61 ERA. Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo are both very promising, and Logan Allen is a perfectly capable fifth starter.
The Guardians also have some depth, with Parker Messick waiting in the wings. The left-hander, as you probably remember, impressed in a seven-start cameo last year with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 innings.
Doug Nikhazy faces a make-or-break year, but could potentially offer another option, as could Kolby Allard. And later in the year, the Guards could unleash Daniel Espino on the rest of the league, and they might not be ready for his combination of stuff, command, and heart.
All things considered, the Guardians are not in bad shape, pitching-wise. Sure, they could use another ace or frontline starter, but they should be closer to the top ten in starting pitcher WAR than you might realize.
NEXT: Guardians Pitcher Continues To Make Strong Case This Spring
